As we approach the election season, many homeowners and potential buyers in Roanoke, VA, and the Smith Mountain Lake area might be wondering how the upcoming presidential election could impact the housing market. Historically, elections have had some temporary effects on real estate, and understanding these can help you make informed decisions.
Historical Impact on Home Sales
History shows that presidential elections typically have a small, temporary impact on the housing market. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Freddie Mac, and various U.S. economists, home sales remain mostly unchanged during an election year compared to non-election years, with one notable exception—November.
Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes:
“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”
However, there’s a silver lining. In 9 out of the last 11 elections, home sales increased in the year following the election. This trend suggests that any slowdown experienced in November tends to be short-lived, with the market rebounding quickly.
What About Home Prices?
When it comes to home prices, the data indicates that an election year does not significantly alter the price trends already present in the market. Ryan Lundquist, an appraiser and housing analyst, states:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
In fact, home prices have increased after 7 of the last 8 elections, with 2009 being the only exception. This suggests that while the market might experience slight fluctuations, the overall trend in home prices tends to remain stable or even rise.
Mortgage Rates: What to Expect
Mortgage rates are another crucial factor for buyers and sellers. Historically, in 8 out of the last 11 presidential election years, mortgage rates have decreased from July to November, according to Freddie Mac. This can be beneficial for buyers looking to enter the market towards the end of the year.
Most forecasts for 2024 predict that rates will ease throughout the remainder of the year leading up to the election. This is great news for hopeful buyers in Roanoke, VA, and Smith Mountain Lake, as lower rates can make purchasing a home more affordable.
Key Takeaways for Roanoke, VA and Smith Mountain Lake Residents
- Temporary Slowdown in November: Expect a slight slowdown in home sales during November of an election year, but anticipate a rebound in the following year.
- Stable or Rising Home Prices: Home prices are likely to continue their current trend, unaffected by the election year.
- Potential Decrease in Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates might decrease as we approach the election, making it a good time to consider buying a home.
As your local realtors in Roanoke, VA, we are here to help you navigate these trends and make the best decisions for your real estate needs. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell in Roanoke or the beautiful Smith Mountain Lake area, understanding how the election might impact the housing market can give you a strategic advantage.
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need personalized advice on your real estate journey.
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Sources:
– National Association of Realtors (NAR)
– Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
– Freddie Mac
– Keeping Current Matters
– U.S. Economists
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